The Ballistic Missile Threat Persists

Now, in just 12 days, only about half of Iran’s alleged stockpile of over 3,000 missiles remains. It fired hundreds at Israel—the majority of which were intercepted—and the Israeli Air Force has decimated its remaining stockpiles. Israel has targeted not only missile stockpiles, but production facilities and launchers. These strikes have crippled Iran’s air defenses, granting Israel air superiority. Still, the ballistic missile threat persists and Israel must ensure its destruction—as well as the removal of the nuclear threat—before declaring victory.

The United States got directly involved, with its Saturday-night bombing of the Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites, and particularlyin targeting Iran’s nuclear facility at Fordow, which required multiple Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs, delivered by B-2 stealth bombers.

U.S. President Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” And as Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said, “Surrendering means surrendering on your adversaries’ terms.”

“One would think that for the Iranian regime, surrendering on Israeli and American terms would mean the end of the nuclear program, the end of the missile program and the end of the proxies,” he said.

In his address on Saturday night, Trump said, “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.”

Iran responded furiously to U.S. airstrikes, vowing what it called “everlasting consequences,” and allegedly called to close the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping channel through which around 20% of the world’s daily oil flows.

The United States is calling on Iran to give up on its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

According to Schanzer, “It’s hard to imagine the regime capitulating to these terms.

Ongoing European talks with Iran’s Foreign Minister further heighten Israel’s concerns about being constrained by a potential agreement that overlooks its security needs, especially since the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) excluded missile restrictions.

For this same reason, Israel is also concerned over a possible U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal that does not address Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal or continued development.

Uzi Rubin, a pioneer of Israel’s missile defense systems, said: “To Trump, conventional missiles are an Israeli concern, but not a U.S. concern,” warning that such a deal could leave Israel vulnerable.

Israel knows this and has been targeting Iran’s missile capability since the start of the war on June 13.

Through precise airstrikes and Iran’s expenditure of hundreds of medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) and drones, Israel has reduced Iran’s stockpile to approximately 1,000-2,000 missiles, with an estimated 300-600 MRBMs still capable of reaching Israel.

Since the war began, Iran has launched over 500 MRBMs and 1,000 drones, killing 28 and injuring thousands in Israel, per Israeli health officials.

Tal Inbar, a ballistic missile expert, said that several types of missiles have been used by Iran during the current conflict.

Ballistic missiles can reach supersonic (Mach 1-5) or hypersonic (Mach 5+) speeds, with medium- and long-range missiles traveling at Mach 6-15 during their terminal phase.

Iran’s ballistic missile program, developed since the 1980s’ Iran-Iraq War, has long underpinned its regional influence. Prior to the conflict, U.S. intelligence estimated Iran possessed 3,000 to 4,000 missiles, including short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs, 300 kilometers to 1,000 kilometers) and MRBMs (up to 2,000 kilometers).

Iran’s strategy relies on coordinated barrages to overwhelm defenses, targeting Israeli cities like Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beersheba and Jerusalem, as well as military sites.

Iran’s missile barrages on Israel so far have included Emad, Ghadr, Kheibar Shekan and Fattah-1 missiles, some of which have penetrated Israel’s multi-layered defenses.

The Emad and Ghadr are liquid-fueled MRBMs with 500-750 kilogram warheads and satellite navigation.

The Kheibar Shekan is a solid-fueled MRBM with maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs) and control fins, enhancing precision and evasion.

On Sunday, Iran claimed it had launched the Kheibar missile at Israel for the first time.

The Fattah-1, considered a “hypersonic” missile, uses MaRVs for mid-flight adjustments, making interception more challenging. Iran deployed this missile in April and October 2024, as well as in the current war.

These missiles have been central to Iran’s retaliatory strategy, with the heavier Khorramshahr and Sejjil likely held in reserve for potential escalation.

Despite Israel’s efforts, Iran’s mobile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs), often disguised as civilian vehicles, and underground “missile cities” ensure resilience. TELs are difficult to locate and Israeli planes require extensive refueling to allow them time to locate them—even with the help of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Still, Israeli strikes are said to have destroyed over half of Iran’s long-range launchers, forcing smaller barrages.

Israel’s air defense system, among the world’s most advanced, has intercepted most of Iran’s missiles. The multi-layered system includes the Iron Dome, effective against SRBMs and drones, less so against ballistic missiles; David’s Sling, which targets medium-range threats, including some ballistic missiles; and Arrow 2 and Arrow 3, designed for long-range ballistic missiles, with Arrow 3 being capable of ex-atmospheric interceptions.

In addition, U.S. support, including Navy destroyers with Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) interceptors and a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, has bolstered Israel’s defenses, particularly against large barrages. Allies like Jordan have also intercepted drones and cruise missiles. Despite this, some Kheibar Shekan and Fattah-1 missiles have penetrated, with a notable strike on Soroka Hospital in Beersheba last week, causing damage but no fatalities.

A missile’s precision is measured by its Circular Error Probable (CEP), the radius within which half of all missiles fired are expected to land. A lower CEP indicates higher accuracy. (The Emad and Ghadr missiles have a low CEP, with accuracy of 10-50 meters.)

Jonathan Ruhe, director of foreign policy at JINSA, explained: “Some of their MRBMs have CEP’s that are in the hundreds of meters… Iran’s missileers certainly were OK with such outcomes when they planned and conducted the launches,” meaning that civilian areas are treated by Iran as large “area targets.”

Ruhe praised Israel’s “astounding” initial operations, likening them to the 1967 Six-Day War, but cautioned that decisive outcomes remain elusive.

Ayatollah Khamenei’s calls for retaliation suggest escalation with heavier missiles like the Khorramshahr or new systems like the Qassem Basir. If MRBMs dwindle, Iran may shift to cruise missiles, SRBMs, or drones, or target U.S. assets.

“This matters less for Israel directly, but the United States and Arab countries are certainly factoring in Iran’s formidable SRBM arsenal, which likely remains fairly intact,” noted Ruhe.

According to Ruhe, “What matters more right now is Israel’s relentless pursuit of Iran’s mobile launchers that fire these missiles, and its targeting of Iran’s force regeneration capacity by hitting production sites.”

In his view “it seems reasonable to assess that Israel has already taken out half of Iran’s prewar arsenal of 350 or so such launchers, and it’s a top priority to keep attriting these numbers.”

The results of Israel’s success can be seen by the fact that Iran’s missile salvos against Israel “are becoming increasingly smaller,” said Ruhe.

Inbar argues, however, that only a regime collapse could fully neutralize Iran’s capabilities: “Perhaps the best is the collapse of the regime, of course, but otherwise I don’t see that just from the air kinetically [through bombing], you could annihilate all of Iran’s capabilities.”

Iran’s vast missile arsenal, dispersed across underground bunkers, urban areas and remote regions, will not vanish overnight.

Unlike Syria, where Israel has conducted targeted strikes to neutralize specific threats in the aftermath of the Assad regime’s collapse, Iran’s sheer size and the scale of its missile program will require a prolonged, resource-intensive effort to secure and dismantle.

Israel may need months to locate and dismantle Iran’s remaining missile capabilities, requiring sustained air superiority and intelligence dominance.

Inbar: “Iran is more than 70 times the size of Israel… So it is very hard to assess all the capabilities Iran has now.” However, he ruled out ground operations, stating: “The last thing that Israel needs is to enter into an attrition war with Iran.”

The United States will likely play a critical role in the containment phase, given its strategic interest in curbing Iran’s military threat.

A U.S.-led coalition, possibly with Gulf states, could share intelligence or funding, but political sensitivities may limit cooperation. Sanctions and monitoring of Iran’s supply chains will be critical to prevent rebuilding.