Trump’s Push for a Hormuz Deal Alarms Experts Over Terms Ceding Oversight to Iran

Experts are expressing growing concern over reports that an emerging deal between Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could grant Tehran unprecedented oversight over the international shipping route, ceding control to Iran that it did not possess prior to the conflict.

…

Jonathan Ruhe, director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America , pointed out that much like the June U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, the potential deal means vastly different things to each side. While the U.S. expects international shipping to resume unencumbered, Tehran views the arrangement as a vehicle to establish long-term authority.

“Iran expects much more, including at least de facto ability to toll and veto passage through Hormuz,” Ruhe said. “Tehran’s redline for a deal is recognition of its ‘right’ to determine and deter shipping in Hormuz, as the spoils of its victory and a key counterweight to further U.S. pressure.”

“Combined with the complications of gaining signoff from Iran’s Supreme Leader, and Iran’s predictable tendency to seek additional U.S. concessions, these differences explain the lack of a deal so far – despite U.S. anticipation of an imminent announcement,” he continued.

…