U.S. Must Reopen the Strait of Hormuz

The United States must reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Failure to do so will reverberate far beyond the Middle East, emboldening America’s adversaries worldwide.

Although both sides appear to be de-escalating, Iran claims nothing has changed about the status of the strait. The U.S. military can restore freedom of navigation through the critical waterway, but it will require determination and patience to implement and stick with a three-pronged campaign: opening a protected corridor through the strait so commerce can move now; cutting off Iran’s overland supply routes; and signaling a willingness to reescalate if Iran resumes targeting ships.

Hormuz is too important to global commerce to remain closed. Roughly a quarter of the world’s oil trade and a fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade normally transit the waterway. More than 30% of the world’s traded urea and roughly 20% of the world’s fertilizers also transit through Hormuz. Disruption of these commodities threatens much of the world’s food supply.

The economic pain and political leverage that Iran can extract by closing the strait became clear this spring. The need to alleviate that pressure led the United States to declare a ceasefire and then accept a deeply problematic memorandum of understanding.

Yet that agreement fell apart, resulting in the recent round of fighting, precisely because Washington, by signing it, showed it was unwilling to reopen the strait itself but would pay almost any price to get traffic flowing through it again. It should be no surprise that Iran quickly resumed throttling shipping to gain further leverage over the United States.

Moreover, Tehran was not the only one that learned this lesson. China and Russia have now seen that a determined adversary can choke off a critical waterway using relatively cheap drones. They have also seen that the United States is unwilling to do what it takes to protect its economic interests, instead backing down when confronted with pressure. This lesson will undermine U.S. deterrence globally. If Iran can hold Hormuz closed against a much superior U.S. military, China could grow bolder in the South China Sea and Russia in the Black Sea or the Baltic Sea.

The United States must not just break Iran’s hold on the strait but also convince other adversaries that they will not be able to replicate Iran’s strategy.

Since CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper reportedly indicated that the United States had already hit most of its targets along the Iranian coast, reopening the strait now requires enabling commercial traffic to transit through safely, while continuing to undermine Iran’s ability and will to deny passage through it. The U.S. military can accomplish this, ideally with its partners, through a three-part strategy that will require equal measures of force and perseverance.

First, now that CENTCOM has struck most of its targets, the United States should open a daily, time-limited protected transit corridor. The United States could, for example, establish a six-hour daily window during which U.S. forces accompany and protect shipping and operate largely from the air, with less need for a large naval presence in the Gulf, which Iran could target. Blanketing the area with drones and airborne early-warning aircraft would provide necessary intelligence to detect launches, mines and other threats.

Constant armed surveillance over the strait would let U.S. forces strike the moment Iran tries to lay mines or attack shipping. Fighter jets should fly combat air patrol over the corridor to defend against larger drones and cruise missiles, while A-10 attack aircraft and Apache helicopters should provide close air support against smaller drones and attack boats. A U.S. commitment to compensate any U.S.- or partner-nation ship that Iran hits would also encourage shipping companies to risk transits.

Second, deny Tehran the oil revenue and military resupply it needs to keep fighting. This requires tightening the blockade of Iranian ports, expanding it to Iran’s shipping networks in the Caspian Sea and cutting off overland rail and bridge routes to Russia and China.

Finally, maintain the capability to eliminate Iran’s ability to target ships with missiles and drones if Tehran escalates again. The United States recently expanded its strikes from coastal launch and radar sites to reach command centers, air defenses, communications and inland launch sites. Counter-battery fire can provide additional ground-based offensive capabilities against Iranian launchers. Cyber operations and electronic warfare aircraft should also seek to jam the flow of Chinese and Russian targeting data, including satellite surveillance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated that Russia has supplied Iran with targeting data that reportedly helped Iran target U.S. troops.

Iran has shown it can hold one of the world’s most important waterways hostage. The longer Washington delays reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the more time Tehran gets to write the rules for a new order in the Gulf at the expense of the United States.