Will Israel Return to a Full-Scale War in Gaza?

Ever since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu grudgingly signed up to a multiphase ceasefire with Hamas in January, he has made no secret of his distaste for its terms.

In the early hours of Tuesday, he brought the fragile peace it had allowed to an end.

As Gazans slept, Israel’s military launched massive strikes on the coastal enclave, killing more than 400 Palestinians in one of the deadliest days in the territory since the early weeks of the 17-month war.

The renewed offensive was hailed by the far-right allies Netanyahu depends upon for his survival, strengthening his coalition as he faces mounting pressure over scandals and the security failures that allowed the Palestinian militant group Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack.

But it also drew the ire of the families of hostages still being held in Gaza, deepened the humanitarian catastrophe in the enclave, and prompted accusations from his opponents that he was acting out of political, rather than national, considerations.

“Netanyahu has a personal interest that the war goes on,” said Itamar Yaar, a former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council. “He doesn’t have any feeling of urgency to stop it.”

The original agreement Israel signed up to in January envisaged a three-stage process. Hamas would gradually release the Israeli hostages it still holds in Gaza, in exchange for the freeing of Palestinian prisoners and a truce that would ultimately lead to a full Israeli withdrawal from the enclave and a permanent end to hostilities.

But in recent weeks, Netanyahu, emboldened by the backing of US President Donald Trump, has rejected ending the war and pulling troops out of the enclave, seeking to engineer a new arrangement instead.

Under the proposed terms, a significant number of hostages would be released earlier than planned in exchange for a weeks-long extension of the truce, but without a guarantee of a permanent end to the war – terms Hamas has rejected.

Israeli officials on Tuesday indicated they could halt the new offensive in Gaza if Hamas agreed to their demands, and people familiar with the situation said mediators were engaging with both sides in the hope of preventing a full-scale resumption of hostilities.

But Israeli officials made clear they were prepared for just that if the militant group refused to concede to their demands.

“If Hamas genuinely comes back to the negotiating table, this will stop. If not, it will continue,” said one official.

Israel’s initial assault on Gaza, which it launched in response to Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack – during which militants killed 1200 people, according to Israeli officials, and took 250 hostage – was its most intensive in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

But despite the scale of the offensive – which has killed more than 48,000 people, according to Palestinian officials, and reduced most of Gaza to uninhabitable rubble — Israel has yet to achieve either of its war goals: the release of all the hostages and Hamas’ destruction.

Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Netanyahu, argued that if Israel did embark on a renewed ground offensive, it was now in a position to deploy more forces in Gaza for longer than it did at the start of the war, as it had since succeeded in weakening other foes such as the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

“Previously, we didn’t have enough forces to take control and to clear the areas [we took in Gaza],” said Amidror, a fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America in Washington. “We killed those who were there. But we retreated afterwards. Here we have to go for an operation in which we will remain for a longer time.”

However, Netanyahu’s critics argued the timing of the renewed offensive was less about military considerations, and more about domestic politics.

For months, the prime minister has been under pressure from his far-right allies to resume the fighting. Former national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir pulled his ultranationalist Jewish Power party out of the coalition in protest at the January ceasefire deal, and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich has threatened to follow suit.

But the renewed assault has changed the political equation, with Ben-Gvir on Tuesday announcing he was rejoining Netanyahu’s coalition. Analysts also argued Smotrich’s threats were now unlikely to materialise.

Israel’s renewed operations drew a fierce reaction from former hostages and relatives of those still being held in Gaza, who warned the offensive was endangering the lives of the roughly 25 captives still believed to be alive.

“What about those who were left behind?” Liri Albag, one of the hostages freed earlier this year, wrote on Instagram.

“Once again, their fate is being played with,” she wrote. “Once again, their lives are being risked instead of saved. Once again, their hopes are being erased. Once again, their lives have become a tool for a game instead of something that must be protected at all costs.”

Analysts said there was also a risk that the renewed offensive could inflame tensions in the occupied West Bank, which, despite the war in Gaza, has remained relatively calm during the fighting.

Following Israel’s strikes on Tuesday, Hamas called on Palestinians in the territory to rise up in response to Israel’s assault on Gaza.

“At least for now, the IDF controls the situation [in the West Bank],” Yaar said. “But no insurance company would [guarantee you] that this will remain exactly the case in the near future.”

Originally published in the Financial Times.