Hezbollah’s Escalation Threatens Full-Scale War

Hezbollah launched 870 anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), rockets, and one-way attack drones against Israel between June 1 and June 20, already marking a single-month record thus far in the war and a 43 percent increase in the number of total munitions fired compared to all of May. These projectile attacks are causing increased damage and casualties in northern Israel, escalating tensions and risking a full-scale war.

This escalation suggests that Hezbollah is feeling pressured by Israel’s consistent strikes targeting Hezbollah’s senior leadership in southern Lebanon, which have eliminated over 340 Hezbollah operatives. Hezbollah is likely seeking to dissuade Israel from launching more such strikes by increasing its own attacks against Israel. This escalate to deescalate strategy increases the risk that Hezbollah will miscalculate and launch an attack that sparks a broader conflict, particularly in light of Israel approving operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon. To dissuade Hezbollah from further escalation, the United States should make clear that it will fully support Israel in the event of a full-scale war with Hezbollah.

Click here to read the NatSec Brief.