Blocking the Breakout: Red Lines and the Iranian Nuclear Program

Iran’s nuclear weapons program has crept closer and closer toward breakout. The U.S. Director of National Intelligence reported in July 2024 that Iran has “undertaken activities that better position [Iran] to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.” Recent statements by Iranian officials have openly questioned the permanence of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s alleged fatwa against the development of nuclear weapons. American policymakers need to urgently and seriously examine how they might identify, declare, and enforce a “red line” against Iran’s efforts, taking into consideration how such efforts could best create deterrence. The time to do so is now, as the flexibility and utility of this option will keep decreasing as Iran’s nuclear program advances—leaving U.S. policymakers with even fewer tools to prevent an Iranian nuclear breakout.

The best hope to prevent an Iranian breakout is to advertise a firm but not overly precise red line. This should only be issued if it is accompanied by a clear track record of kinetic action against Iranian provocations, demonstrating the credibility of U.S. threats, and ideally bolstered by public deliveries of advanced munitions and equipment to the region and Israel and more public bilateral military exercises between the United States and Israel. Additional steps to augment a red line include the passage by Congress of an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) against Iran’s nuclear program and securing a public statement of support from European allies for any U.S./Israeli efforts to prevent a breakout.

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