Epic Fury II: Securing U.S. Objectives in Iran

In the operation’s opening hours on February 28, President Trump laid out Epic Fury’s goals to eliminate Iran’s nuclear weapons and missile programs. U.S. objectives now include reestablishing freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. These goals have not yet been met, but they can be. To achieve its objectives, the United States should return to military operations.

The current ceasefire, blockade, and prospect of a “memorandum of understanding” cannot reliably compel Iran to accede to U.S. demands, at least at acceptable cost to U.S. interests. As implicit in Iran’s offer of talks predicated on the United States loosening its blockade, the regime seeks immediate advantage for itself without any indication of actually agreeing to major U.S. demands. Its plan is as it has been in endless rounds of negotiations across multiple U.S. administrations: to appear amenable, agree to nothing, drag out talks, erode U.S. resolve, and use the time to strengthen itself.

Already, Tehran has made clear that major U.S. objectives are off the table. Rather than credibly, fully, and permanently dismantle its nuclear program, Iran insists that that it has a right to enrich uranium, with only a temporary suspension, not an end, to its nuclear program on the table. Other U.S. objectives cannot be achieved diplomatically at all. Making a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would be tantamount to acknowledging Iranian control of the vital waterway, an unacceptable proposition. Indeed, Iran’s seemingly benevolent offer to allow maritime traffic through during negotiations is actually an assertion that the Strait of Hormuz is its domain to control, oversee, and reopen only when it decides.

It is time, therefore, for the United States, Israel, and its Gulf partners to launch Operation Epic Fury 2. For its center of gravity, this renewed military campaign should target the Iranian regime’s conviction it will outlast and overpressure the United States through diplomatic, economic, and military confrontation. Fully enforcing the U.S. blockade, forcibly ending Iran’s threat to shipping through the Strait, degrading the regime’s retaliatory capabilities, and undermining its internal coercive apparatus are core to this campaign. Countervalue strikes, like those reportedly under consideration by the White House, threaten mostly to undermine these goals by spurring Iranian escalation, with potentially catastrophic consequences, against desalination and power plants across the Gulf.

In and of themselves, these operations are unlikely to attain the entirety of U.S. objectives. But by ending Iran’s control of Hormuz, and by undermining key props of its internal control and external aggression, Epic Fury 2 removes the regime’s most immediately threatening capabilities and fosters the best possible conditions for an acceptable solution to its nuclear weapons program.

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