PRESS RELEASE: For Ceasefire Deal to Succeed in Lebanon, U.S. Must Take Active Role to Prevent Past Failures
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
November 20, 2024
Washington, DC – Any ceasefire deal with Israel and Hezbollah that fails to enshrine Israel’s freedom of action will only inflame and prolong hostilities, argues a new report released today by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, co-authored by Israel Defense Forces Brigadier General Effie Defrin, currently a visiting fellow at JINSA.
The report, Suppressing Iran’s Ring of Fire in Lebanon, analyzes the leaked details from recent ceasefire negotiations led by the United States, saying it does not go far enough in addressing the resolution’s lack of enforcement and narrow focus on southern Lebanon.
The United States has an invaluable role to play, alongside Israel, in restoring calm to Israel’s north and paving the way for a more secure future for the people of Lebanon and Israel alike—including helping massively overhaul the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL); instituting wide-ranging reforms to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF); and enforcing a deal’s provisions with sustained attention and a willingness to use tough measures.
“As head of the IDF’s International Cooperation Division, I saw firsthand Hezbollah’s gargantuan military build-up occurring under the nose of UNIFIL and the LAF.” said BG Defrin. “Now, the time and conditions are ripe for the United States to pressure Hezbollah into a ceasefire that avoids past mistakes, while ensuring Israel’s freedom of action and ultimately dealing a major blow to Iran’s regionwide terror network.”
The report is replete with examples, drawn from BG Defrin’s five years overseeing the IDF’s international division, of how UN Security Resolution 1701 completely failed to prevent Hezbollah from rapidly expanding its arsenal and building an extensive military tunnel network throughout the supposed buffer zone with Israel in southern Lebanon.
“BG Defrin’s insights from years of engaging with the Hezbollah challenge make clear that Israel, the United States, and the free world cannot afford a return to the rudderless diplomatic misadventures of years past,” said Michael Makovsky, PhD, President & CEO of JINSA. “There is no substitute for U.S. leadership to help ink and enforce a strong deal that meets Israel’s security needs and continues Israel’s momentum against the region’s Iran-backed terror proxies.”
The report recommends that any ceasefire deal, and its enforcement, must involve six elements:
1) Support for Israel’s Freedom of Action
Any ceasefire deal must explicitly and unambiguously convey Israel’s freedom of action, whenever, wherever in Lebanon. Israel must be able to act freely to neutralize threats and interdict inbound weapons. Part of the deal’s success will hinge on consistent U.S. rhetorical backing of Israel’s continued legitimate right to self-defense against Hezbollah threats.
2) An Overhaul of UNIFIL
Due to UNIFIL’s inability to restrain Hezbollah, a new, U.S.-led effort is needed to reform the peacekeeping force through substantial reforms to UNIFIL’s mandate—including reforming its reporting and aversion to enforcement on “private property”—in the lead-up to its next renewal in August 2025. To push through these changes, the United States should exercise leverage over whichever country holds UNIFIL’s rotating chair and threatening to withhold some portion of U.S. funding to the United Nations.
3) Enhanced Dialogue Channels
The United States should reform the long-rudderless and opaque tripartite mechanism (Israel, Lebanon, and UNIFIL) by pressuring UNIFIL and Lebanon to adopt fixed protocols for regular meetings and require snap meetings on an ad hoc basis. Future tripartite meetings should include outside state observers—including the United States—and published directives to bring accountability to the institutionally risk-averse and inertia-driven LAF and UNIFIL.
4) U.S.-led Reforms to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)
It is highly unrealistic to expect that the LAF will whip into shape absent external—namely U.S.—pressures to reform. A set portion of future U.S. military aid to Lebanon should be conditioned on the LAF terminating any Hezbollah cooperation, facilitating UNIFIL entry into private property, hermetically sealing Lebanon from Iranian arms, and diversifying its geographic and sectarian recruitment to hedge against Hezbollah infiltration.
5) A Robust Oversight Team
Sustained, engaged, and tough U.S. leadership will be required to prevent any international mechanism from devolving into an ineffective bureaucratic layer that replicates UNIFIL’s inefficiency. This should involve regular U.S.-led briefings with the relevant parties—namely Israel, Lebanon, and UNIFIL. The United States should also stand up a joint operations center to oversee LAF and UNIFIL operations and provide operational insights, including by installing cameras and sensors on UNIFIL and LAF personnel and facilities.
6) Continued Efforts to Change Iran’s Strategic Calculus
The United States must work in parallel with Israel to communicate unequivocally to Iran that it will face dire consequences for trying to undermine or sabotage a ceasefire deal and make good on its word.