Gaza Chaos Likely to Metastasize
[Ed. Note: the following report comes to us from Lenny Ben-David, a former Israeli diplomat. Note, in particular, the implications for the U.S.-led Multinational Force Organization in the Sinai. You can read more of his work at www.lennybendavid.com.]The pictures from the Gaza-Egypt border show tens of thousands of Gazans celebrating their “release” from the Hamas-controlled area. But the mass shopping spree may soon be replaced by a paroxysm of deadly terrorism. Consider the terrorist organizations and targets now in play:
[Ed. Note: the following report comes to us from Lenny Ben-David, a former Israeli diplomat. Note, in particular, the implications for the U.S.-led Multinational Force Organization in the Sinai. You can read more of his work at www.lennybendavid.com.]
The pictures from the Gaza-Egypt border show tens of thousands of Gazans celebrating their “release” from the Hamas-controlled area. But the mass shopping spree may soon be replaced by a paroxysm of deadly terrorism. Consider the terrorist organizations and targets now in play:
- Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad are now relatively free to travel throughout the Sinai, including the long, lightly defended Egyptian-Israeli border. They are likely equipped with new weapons and explosives obtained from Hamas arsenals in Sinai. Those weapons no longer have to make the arduous route through tunnels into Gaza. Possible targets: All of Eilat and Israeli army positions and remote villages along the border. Exactly one year ago, in January 2007, a suicide bomber from Gaza infiltrated from Sinai and killed three Eilat residents.
- Egyptian resorts in Sinai are high on the terrorists’ target lists, particularly those that cater to Israeli and European tourists. Dozens of guests were killed in a Taba hotel bombing and beach camping areas in October 2004. Al Qaeda was suspected.
- Al Jazeera reported on Sunday that Egyptians arrested 20 armed Palestinians in Sinai. They were equipped with explosives and electronic devices to listen to Egyptian military transmissions. If true, the arrest suggests that foreign intelligence services may be playing a role in directing the terrorists. Best guess is Iranian, Hezbollah, and/or al Qaeda involvement.
- The 1,800 Multi-National Force and Observers (MFO) in Sinai are sitting ducks for the terrorists. The lightly armed soldiers come from 11 nations, but by far the largest contingent is from the United States. In recent days there were reports that the American forces withdrew from the El Gorah base near Al Arish. U.S.-led multi-national troops are at war with Islamic radicals in Afghanistan and Iraq. Chasing the Americans out of another base in the Middle East will be a great achievement for Nasrallah, Ahmadinejad, Bin Laden, and Assad. In August 2005 an IED was detonated near an MFO vehicle. In April 2006 a suicide bomber attempted to attack an MFO vehicle in Mansoura, Sinai.
- January 27, the Fiji Battalion in Sinai reported that one of its three checkpoints is only 100 meters from where the Gaza security wall was breached. The unit, according to its commander, “is observing and monitoring the movement from Gaza into Egypt and out of the designated zone of the MFO which we are part of.”
The tremors out of Gaza could spread across the Sinai and the Suez into Egypt itself. The Muslim Brotherhood does not require much to ignite riots in the streets of Cairo.