Meanwhile, the Arabs and Iraq

While people weren’t looking, the Surge succeeded in Iraq. Conventional wisdom – meaning The Washington Post, The New York Times and Newsweek – now focuses on governing problems in Baghdad and The Post even chastised the Democratic candidates for failing to take the changed security situation into account on the stump. We’re with political columnist Michael Barone, who said, “Never bet against the U.S. military.” (More on the changes on the ground next time.)

While people weren’t looking, the Surge succeeded in Iraq. Conventional wisdom – meaning The Washington Post, The New York Times and Newsweek – now focuses on governing problems in Baghdad and The Post even chastised the Democratic candidates for failing to take the changed security situation into account on the stump. We’re with political columnist Michael Barone, who said, “Never bet against the U.S. military.” (More on the changes on the ground next time.)

But if Iraq has moved toward relative security, the stability is extremely fragile and requires more than just American and coalition support. It requires the active participation of Egypt and the Gulf States, led by Saudi Arabia. As President Bush goes to the region, it is imperative that he talk to them about returning their diplomatic personnel to Baghdad and providing debt relief to Saddam’s successors. The Gulf States can afford it and there should be at least one benefit to the current price of oil.

Right now, the President is in a strong position.

The Sunni-majority Arab states – led by Saudi Arabia – were unhappy with the overthrow of Saddam for three important reasons: Saddam’s army held Shiite fundamentalist Iran in check; they feared Iraq’s Shiite majority would take revenge on the Sunnis for the depredations of Saddam’s rule; and they believed a Shiite-Arab-led government in Iraq would be more Shiite than Arab, bending toward Persian Iran rather than the Arab fold.

While their fears were legitimate – particularly their fear of Iranian expansionism – their response was counterproductive in the extreme: funding and supporting al Qaeda and Sunni radicals in hopes of restoring Sunni rule, refusing to recognize the elected government, and refusing debt relief.

Over the past year, the United States, by design enhanced by coincidence, has averted at least for now the feared Iraqi civil war and helped the Sunnis begin to find their place in the new Iraq. The Shiites have shown some independence from Iran, but it’s awfully hard to encourage them to see themselves as Arab Iraqis first and as Shiites second if the only regional diplomatic presence in Baghdad is from TEHRAN. Iran is spending money, sending arms and expanding its influence among the Shiites and there is no countervailing Arab presence or help.

The Arabs are not only ceding the playing field, but also enhancing Iran’s position. They have the money, they have the capability, and they have the right instincts on this – Iran has to be reduced in influence. President Bush has been undermined at the strategic level by the NIE on Iran, but one of the surest lessons of Iraq is that tactical successes can pave the way for strategic ones.

The Arab states have to bring their influence, their diplomats and their money to Baghdad – in their own interest – and the President should make the case.