Might The Riots Trip Iran’s Leaders?

Good news. The street riots in Tehran have evolved into efforts at a palace coup worthy of the Borgias. Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei, in an effort to ward off a potential challenge coming from Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, had five members of Rafsanjani’s family arrested including his daughter.

It was a warning to Rafsanjani that he had better not align himself with the opposition. But it well may have the opposite effect.

Good news. The street riots in Tehran have evolved into efforts at a palace coup worthy of the Borgias. Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei, in an effort to ward off a potential challenge coming from Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, had five members of Rafsanjani’s family arrested including his daughter.

It was a warning to Rafsanjani that he had better not align himself with the opposition. But it well may have the opposite effect.

Rafsanjani heads up the cleric-led Assembly of Experts, 86 Islamic scholars charged with electing and supervising Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. The Assembly can also remove Khamenei from power, although it is questionable whether Rafsanjani has the votes to do so. Rafsanjani also heads up the Expediency Council whose responsibility is to adjudicate disagreements between parliament and the Guardian Council, the 12-member group with wide-ranging powers over the Iran’s laws and governance.

Iran’s fire-breathing president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who serves at Khamenei’s pleasure, has publicly accused Rafsanjani of corruption thus foolishly giving Rafsanjani, himself a former Iranian president, little alternative but to strike back.

To complicate matters for Khamenei, despite a confirmation of election results by the Iranian Guard Council, Mohsen Rezai, a former head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and currently a candidate for president, also challenged the election results. Since Rezai is still very influential in the IRGC, the event is significant.

A rumor circulating around Tehran is that Khamenei and Ahmadinejad had imported Hezbollah and Hamas goons to join the Basij militia in breaking up election protests. If these rumors prove true, the implications would be tremendous. The idea that Arabs were brought in to suppress Iranians would virtually seal Khamenei and Ahmadinejad’s fate.

In short, what we are seeing is only the beginning. I don’t know what the short-term implications of “the rioting” are but the long-term implications are clear. Khamenei and Ahmadinejad’s days are numbered. They have sparked a veritable revolution.

The headlines from Iran suggest that Rafsanjani defers to Khamenei and that the movement can no longer put tens of thousands of protester in the street.

What has been unleashed in Iran has been momentarily subdued by the arrest of more than 2,000 people and a heavy dose of intimidation, but it cannot be put back into the box. The rooftops of Iran buzz with protest. The cars drive with lights on during the daytime as a sign of protest even in the face of smashed windows and slashed tires courtesy of the Baij militia. People are willing to risk their lives. The revolution has found its first martyr in the person of Neda Agha-Soltan, the young woman shot dead by government forces in the streets of Tehran.

History teaches us that revolutions don’t always succeed at first blush. Whether today or tomorrow, relative or otherwise, the long march to freedom has begun.