Joe Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan haunted his presidency.
His poll numbers at home never recovered, and foreign aggressors took his ineptitude as an invitation to challenge US interests.
Donald Trump will have a unique opportunity to do the exact opposite at the start of his second term — a sort of “reverse Afghanistan” that shocks the world through the successful application of American power — by cooperating with Israel to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
Thanks to Israel, Iran is reeling.
Its most powerful proxy, Hezbollah, has been rendered impotent, and its pivotal ally, the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, has collapsed, its military capabilities laid waste by Israeli air power.
As for Iran itself, an Israeli attack in late October destroyed its most advanced air defenses, leaving the country naked to follow-on raids. Iran’s nuclear facilities are completely exposed.
Not only do Iran’s defenses lie in tatters, so too does the credibility of its longstanding threat to answer any attack on its nuclear facilities with a region-wide war.
The second-strike capability posed by Hezbollah’s massive rocket stockpile is no more. As for Iran’s own vaunted missile force, it fired two large salvos at the Jewish state and inflicted barely any damage — and that was before Israel’s October operation succeeded in crippling Iran’s missile-production capabilities.
Israel did all this without sparking the broader war the Biden administration had long feared.
Yet in Iran’s vulnerability lies a real danger: With its conventional deterrence in ruins, the regime now has enormous incentive to cross the nuclear threshold — a possibility its leaders today openly discuss.
It wouldn’t take much.
Iran already stands on the precipice, days away from producing enough highly enriched uranium for one bomb and a few weeks from having enough for a small arsenal.
It could take them anywhere from two to 18 months to turn that material into a usable weapon.
Making matters worse, this work could occur in secret without the world finding out until it was too late to stop it.
While US and Israeli intelligence believe they could detect such moves, their past record in predicting when other countries cross the nuclear Rubicon is decidedly poor.
In short, the moment to take out Iran’s nuclear program is now.
The opportunity to conduct a successful strike while avoiding a larger conflagration is at its height — as is the danger that further delay will gift Iran the time it needs for nuclear breakout.
Trump will be tempted to spend the first months of his administration reinstating a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran and initiating a new round of nuclear diplomacy, but the risks are high.
The US negotiating history to end Iran’s nuclear ambitions is an uninterrupted tale of failure.
Iran’s rulers have been masters at deception and buying time.
Exhibit A is the JCPOA, the 2015 Obama-era deal Trump scuttled in 2018.
That agreement took years to negotiate and only temporarily paused Iran’s march toward the bomb.
Trump should not miss the unique window for decisive action opened by Israel’s military successes.
A joint US-Israeli strike would optimize the operation’s effectiveness.
The United States’ unique capabilities and firepower would be especially helpful in eliminating Fordow, Iran’s most deeply buried enrichment site.
At a minimum, Trump should supply Israel the weapons and platforms it needs to do so.
Despite Biden’s last-minute announcement of a new $8 billion arms package last week, his damaging hold on re-supplying Israel with certain munitions critical to an Iran strike continues, including 2,000-, 1,000- and 500-pound bombs.
Trump should deliver them immediately.
Trump should approve Israel’s longstanding request to acquire the GBU-72, the most powerful bunker-busting bomb in the US arsenal that Israel’s F-15 jets can carry.
Trump should also grant Israel’s request for expedited delivery of at least two KC-46A mid-air refueling tankers, to ensure that the full might of its air power can be brought to bear for the 2,000-mile round trip between Israel and Iran.
Finally, Trump should make clear there will be “hell to pay” should Iran make the mistake of striking back at Israel or attacking our Gulf Arab allies’ vulnerable cities or energy facilities.
Joining, or at least supporting, Israel in destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities means Trump will achieve what his predecessors promised to do but didn’t.
By acting in early 2025, Trump will not only rid the world of the nightmare of a nuclear-armed terrorist state.
He will also set down a marker of American power whose stabilizing message of deterrence will reverberate around the globe — to the enormous benefit of US interests — for the entirety of his presidency.
Michael Makovsky, PhD, is President and CEO.of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, where John Hannah is a senior fellow.
Originally Published in the New York Post.