As the United States and Israel continue to decimate Iran’s conventional capabilities, it becomes clearer that their campaign cannot stop until at least one of two objectives is achieved: the collapse of the Tehran regime, or the end of its nuclear program. If the regime survives, it will be even more determined and desperate to go nuclear.

The Tehran regime already understood that giving up on a nuclear program is a recipe for being invaded, as happened with Ukraine; toppled like Bashar al-Assad; or invaded, toppled, and killed like Moamar Qaddafi and Saddam Hussein. Meanwhile, North Korea achieved nuclear weapons and its impoverished hermit regime remains safely in power. This history lesson is even clearer now that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top officials have been eliminated. Assuming it survives in some form, the regime will have every incentive to secure the ultimate deterrent against another such war.

Michael Makovsky, a former Pentagon official, is President and CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA)

Jonathan Ruhe is Fellow for American Strategy at JINSA.

Originally published in RealClearDefense.

The post Iran’s Next Move Is the Bomb—If the Regime Survives appeared first on JINSA.

Click here to read a transcript.

The Iranian regime is in trouble, with strikes eliminating its intelligence chief; the head of its Basij forces; and its security chief—and top decisionmaker—Ali Larijani in recent days.

Now, Iran is exercising its last lifeline: closing the Strait of Hormuz and bringing much of the world’s energy flows to a halt. While President Donald Trump is pushing U.S. allies to help secure the vital trade artery, none have publicly agreed to thus far.

To discuss potential solutions to the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck from the U.S. and Israeli military perspectives, JINSA hosted a webinar with two leading subject matter experts.

The discussion featured JINSA Distinguished Fellow IDF MG (ret.) Yaakov Amidror, the former head of Israel’s National Security Council, and JINSA Generals and Admirals Program Participant VADM (ret.) Herman Shelanski, former Commander, Carrier Strike Group 10, and former Senior Military Advisor to the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense.

JINSA Vice President for Policy Blaise Misztal moderated the conversation.

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IDF MG (ret.) Yaakov Amidror IDF MG (ret.) Yaakov Amidror is a Distinguished Fellow at JINSA. Prior to joining JINSA, MG Amidror was the National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Israel, as well as the head of Israel’s National Security Council. MG (ret.) Amidror also has served as Director of Israel’s Intelligence Analysis Division. Click here to read full bio

VADM Herman Shelanski, USN (ret.) VADM Herman Shelanski, USN (ret.) is a JINSA Generals and Admirals Program Participant and former Commander of the U.S. Navy’s Carrier Strike Group 10. He also previously served as Senior Military Advisor to the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense and as Director for Assessments, U.S. Navy. Click here to read full bio

Blaise Misztal Blaise Misztal is the Vice President for Policy at JINSA. Misztal previously was a Fellow at the Hudson Institute, and has held roles as the Executive Director of the Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States and Director of the National Security Program at the Bipartisan Policy Center. Click here to read full bio

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According to Major General (ret.) Amidror, “Israel and the United States of America have a clear strategy: to make the regime in Iran weaker and weaker every day.”

General (res.) Amidror, who also previously served as Israel’s military intelligence analysis chief, discussed the far-ranging strategic impact of Israel’s decapitation strikes. He described how Ali Larijani “promoted the destruction of Israel and the death of America, and tried to spread terrorism around the world.” Larijani, according to General (res.) Amidror, was Iran’s “leading decisionmaker, no question” following the elimination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei at the start of the war.

Referring to Gholamreza Soleimani, he stated that the Basij forces Soleimani led “were the main forces used by the authorities to oppress the demonstrators” in January and that his elimination may make it harder for Iran to suppress popular uprisings in the future.

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Click here to read a transcript.

Iran’s regime is trying to escalate its way out of the war. While U.S.-Israeli operations degrade its military capabilities, Tehran is broadening the conflict and raising its economic costs by attacking commercial shipping, mining the Arabian Gulf, and targeting vital Middle East energy infrastructure. It also is opening an additional front against Israel by unleashing Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon.

JINSA hosted a webinar breaking down the evolving situation featuring IDF MG (ret.) Yaakov Amidror, JINSA Distinguished Fellow and the former National Security Advisor to Israel’s Prime Minister, and VADM Mark Fox, USN (ret.), JINSA Generals and Admirals Program Participant and former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command. The discussion was moderated by JINSA Fellow for American Strategy Jonathan Ruhe.

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IDF MG (ret.) Yaakov Amidror IDF MG (ret.) Yaakov Amidror is a Distinguished Fellow at JINSA. Prior to joining JINSA, MG Amidror was the National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Israel, as well as the head of Israel’s National Security Council. MG (ret.) Amidror also has served as Director of Israel’s Intelligence Analysis Division. Click here to read full bio

VADM Mark Fox, USN (ret.) VADM Mark I. Fox, USN (ret.) is a member of JINSA’s Eastern Mediterranean and Abraham Accords policy projects and a JINSA Generals and Admirals Program Participant. VADM Fox previously served as Deputy Commander, U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Florida, and Commander, U.S. Naval Central Command. In addition, VADM Fox commanded Carrier Strike Group 10 aboard USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75). Click here to read full bio

Jonathan Ruhe Jonathan Ruhe is the Director of Foreign Policy at JINSA. Prior to joining JINSA, he worked at the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC), where he focused on Middle East and Former Soviet Union security issues. His commentary has appeared in the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Foreign Policy, The Dispatch, and various international media outlets. Click here to read full bio

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As retired senior American military leaders, we support the joint U.S.-Israeli military action to degrade and weaken the Iranian regime’s ability to threaten the United States, our allies and partners, and the Iranian people. And we commend the valor of the outstanding United States Military and our Intelligence Community engaged in this operation.

Since its inception 47 years ago, the radical regime, whose slogan is “Death to America, Death to Israel,” has committed to endangering the lives of U.S. troops, diplomats, and civilians across the Middle East and here at home. Hundreds of Americans have lost their lives at the hands of the Islamic Republic and its terrorist proxies. Leaders in Tehran openly state their ambitions to spill American blood, evict the United States from the Middle East, eliminate Israel, and dominate a region that remains vital to global stability. Through its proxies, it is the largest state sponsor of terrorism. It has been developing the missile and nuclear capability to threaten the eastern seaboard of the United States. It has sought all this with the aid and support of U.S. adversaries, including Russia, China, and North Korea.

U.S.-Israel military action is a response to Iran’s unstinting efforts to make those ambitions a reality. Following last summer’s 12-Day War, Tehran has redoubled its missile building program to hold at risk our bases, our partners, and ultimately our homeland. Its proxy forces in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, and elsewhere continue to threaten U.S. targets, Israel, and freedom of navigation in some of the world’s most vital waterways.

And it has persisted in its nuclear weapons pursuit, despite being offered every offramp possible. Since Operation Midnight Hammer against its main enrichment sites last June, Iran has attempted to rebuild elements of its destroyed nuclear infrastructure. It has fortified new undeclared facilities, including the deeply buried site at Pickaxe Mountain, and blocked inspectors.  Throughout, it has refused to negotiate the full dismantlement of its atomic weapons program that is illegal under international law and has no verifiably peaceful intentions.

The regime’s brutal crackdown on protestors showed the entire world just what it is willing to do to keep its people—and the region—under its thumb.

For all these reasons, it is noteworthy that the United States is working so closely with Israel and other regional partners. Such cooperation is vital to degrade and eliminate the regime’s arsenals, undermine its organs of oppression, and signal unmistakably that it cannot continue threatening not only core U.S. interests, but the broader security and prosperity of the Middle East and its own population.

It will ultimately be up to the Iranian people to bring down the regime and enable a better future for Iran and the world.

Download the letter here.

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Click here to read a transcript.

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran in what President Donald Trump described as a “massive and ongoing” military campaign. This historic joint operation—dubbed Epic Fury and Roaring Lion by the United States and Israel, respectively—eliminated senior Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, Mohammad Shirazi, and IRGC Chief Mohammad Pakpour, and targeted other key elements of Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure.

The daylight attack came just days after Iran once again rebuffed American diplomatic proposals. President Trump called on the Iranian people to “take over your government,” while warning that the campaign may continue for days. Iran subsequently launched retaliatory strikes toward Israel and U.S. targets across the region, with explosions reported in multiple Gulf states and regional airspace disruptions underway.

JINSA hosted a webinar examining the objectives of Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion as well as what this moment means for the Iranian regime, regional stability, and U.S.-Israel strategic coordination. The webinar featured JINSA Hertog Distinguished Fellow Gen Frank McKenzie, USMC (ret.), former Commander, United States Central Command; JINSA Distinguished Fellow IDF MG (ret.) Yaakov Amidror, former National Security Advisor to Israel’s Prime Minister; and JINSA Sherman-Vidal Distinguished Fellow IDF MG (ret.) Oded Bassiuk, former head of the IDF Operations Directorate.

The discussion was moderated by JINSA President and CEO Michael Makovsky, PhD.

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Gen Frank McKenzie, USMC (ret.) Gen Frank McKenzie, USMC (ret.) is the Hertog Distinguished Fellow at JINSA and also oversees national security research at the University of South Florida. He is the former Commander, U.S. Central Command, as well as former Commander, U.S. Marine Forces Central Command. He also previously served as Director for Strategic Plans and Policy at the Pentagon. Click here to read full bio

IDF MG (ret.) Yaakov Amidror IDF MG (ret.) Yaakov Amidror is a Distinguished Fellow at JINSA. Prior to joining JINSA, MG Amidror was the National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Israel, as well as the head of Israel’s National Security Council. Among other distinguished postings, MG Amidror also served as Director of Israel’s Intelligence Analysis Division. Click here to read full bio

IDF MG (ret.) Oded Bassiuk IDF MG (ret.) Oded Bassiuk is Sherman-Vidal Distinguished Fellow at JINSA. He is the former Head of the Operations Directorate in the Israeli military, where he oversaw campaigns in recent years against enemy forces in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iran, and elsewhere. Click here to read full bio

John Hannah John Hannah is the Randi & Charles Wax Senior Fellow at JINSA. Hannah served in a range of U.S. government positions, including National Security Advisor to the U.S. Vice President and Senior Advisor to the U.S. Secretary of State. Click here to read full bio

Michael Makovsky, PhD Michael Makovsky, PhD, is President and CEO of JINSA. Makovsky is a former senior Pentagon official and is a leading policy expert on U.S.-Israel defense ties, U.S. Middle East policy, and the role of energy in U.S. national security policy. Click here to read full bio

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This time, they misjudged the president.

The path to today began in 2020, when President Trump made the decision to strike then Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, an Iranian military leader who masterminded attacks against American people and facilities in the Middle East. Since his death, Iran has been unable to recover the coherence and purpose of General Suleimani’s proxy operations. Equally important, the strike established Mr. Trump’s credentials as someone who would not be in thrall to Iran. The president is the unique advantage we have in the region. For the first time in decades, American military power in the Middle East deployed against Iran is coupled with a commander in chief who isn’t afraid to use it.

For decades, the primary goal of Iranian statecraft has been regime preservation. The generation of the 1970s, though aging, still aims to pass the torch at home and export it abroad in the form of militant Shia Islam. Iran’s leaders seem to believe that keeping the revolutionary fire alive is their biggest priority, and they respond only to direct and unambiguous pressure on the regime. During the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, for instance, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, then the supreme leader, “drank from the poisoned chalice,” as he put it, and accepted a truce with Iraq under adverse circumstances to preserve the clerical regime in Iran.

The post Iran Got Trump All Wrong appeared first on JINSA.

Washington, DC — The following is a statement from Michael Makovsky, President and CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, on the U.S.-led military operation against the Iranian regime:

“We commend President Donald Trump for taking the historic, courageous, and proper decision to launch a major military campaign, in collaboration with Israel, to severely weaken the vile Iranian regime to ensure it can no longer threaten the United States or our regional allies, or destabilize the region, and to encourage the Iranian people to rise up and ‘take over your government.’

“President Trump, despite obvious risks, has opted for a more significant campaign over limited strikes, which has characterized his previous military engagements. We commend Pres. Trump’s willingness to address the Iranian threat with Iran, despite Tehran instigating the murder of hundreds of American soldiers and civilians over decades, and development of nuclear weapons and missiles that would one day reach the American homeland.

“For years, JINSA has called on the U.S. to adopt a strategy toward Iran of ‘regime collapse,’ and since the uprising of the Iranian people and the murderous response by the regime, we have pressed for implementing it: by weakening the regime and its nuclear and conventional forces, thereby enabling the Iranian people to remove the regime.

“In true form, Iran has wrongly and counter-productively fired missiles today at uninvolved countries in the region, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Aptly, the Iranian regime is alone now, with none of its axis partners, such as China and Russia, willing to do anything to help them. 

“Americans should remember those countries which stood with us today, and those who have sat on the fence or even opposed us at this critical moment.

“We greatly appreciate the stellar American soldiers involved in this effort, led admirably by U.S. Central Command Commander Admiral Brad Cooper, and wish them great success and safety in their efforts to advance U.S. national security and peace in the world.”

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